Early extreme contradictory estimates may appear in published research: The Proteus phenomenon in molecular genetics research and randomized trials

Excerpts

The maximal between-study variance was more likely to be recorded early in the 44 eligible meta-analyses of genetic associations than in the 37 meta-analyses of health care interventions (P = .013). At the time of the first heterogeneity assessment, the most favorable-ever result in support of a specific association was more likely to appear than the least favorable-ever result (22 vs. 10, P = .017); the opposite was seen at the second heterogeneity assessment (15 vs. 5, P = .031). Such a sequence of extreme opposite results was not seen in the clinical trials meta-analyses. The estimated between-study variance decreased over time in genetic association studies (P = .010), but not in clinical trials (P = .30).

Reference

John PA Ioannidis, Thomas A Trikalinos “Early extreme contradictory estimates may appear in published research: The Proteus phenomenon in molecular genetics research and randomized trials” (2005) DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.10.019

@Article{ioannidis2005b,
  title = {Early extreme contradictory estimates may appear in published research: The Proteus phenomenon in molecular genetics research and randomized trials},
  volume = {58},
  issn = {0895-4356},
  url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.10.019},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.10.019},
  number = {6},
  journal = {Journal of Clinical Epidemiology},
  publisher = {Elsevier BV},
  author = {Ioannidis, John PA and Trikalinos, Thomas A},
  year = {2005},
  month = {jun},
  pages = {543–549}
}