On the Triumph of Mediocrity in Business

A final, famous example dates back to 1933, when the field of mathematical statistics was in its infancy. Horace Secrist, a statistics professor at Northwestern University, published The Triumph of Mediocrity in Business, which argued that unusually successful businesses tend to become less successful and unsuccessful businesses tend to become more successful: proof that businesses trend toward mediocrity. This was not a statistical artifact, he argued, but a result of competitive market forces. Secrist supported his argument with reams of data and numerous charts and graphs and even cited some of Galton’s work in regression to the mean. Evidently, Secrist did not understand Galton’s point.

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