A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors

The famous study of Abraham Wald on holes in WW2 planes and survivorship bias.

Excerpts

This analysis of the hypothetical data would lead to the conclusion that the plane is most vulnerable Lu a hit on the engine area if the type of bullet is not specified, and is most vulnerable to a hit by a 20-mm cannon shell if the part hit is not specified.

Details

PDF is a reprint of 1980; 89 pages.

See also

Abraham Wald and the airplane diagram with red bullet holes – here’s the origin story · 2022-03-24 · Cameron Moll
By the author of the original plane-with-red-dots picture.

Survivorship Bias: The Mathematician Who Helped Win WWII · 2020-10-29 · Alessandro Bazzi

The Story of Abraham Wald

Reference

Abraham Wald “A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors” (1943)

@Book{wald1943,
  title = {A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors},
  author = {Wald, Abraham},
  year = {1943}
}